Russian pro-war bloggers have responded to the leak of what is reported to be confidential U.S. military documents covering a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive with “speculative anxiety,” according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The U.S.-based think tank said on Friday that several prominent Russian milbloggers are “fixated on the possibility that the released documents are disinformation” deliberately leaked to confuse the Russian military.
There is growing speculation that Ukrainian troops will launch a counteroffensive in the coming months in a bid to regain territory from occupying Russian forces. The Russian military has spent the last few months attempting to capture the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, with limited success. However, according to a recent British intelligence report, Moscow has “regained some momentum” over recent days.
It comes after a second set of supposedly confidential documents, covering not just Ukraine, but also U.S. relations with China and various powers in the Middle East, were posted on messaging board 4chan on Friday.
The first set of documents appeared on social media, including Telegram and Twitter, but appear to have been “modified,” The New York Times reported on Thursday. This may “point to an effort of disinformation by Moscow,” the newspaper added, in what it described as a “significant breach of American intelligence in the effort to aid Ukraine.” The documents included in the leak also showed discussion of the training, armaments, and offensive capabilities of various Ukrainian military units.
Meanwhile in its report, the ISW wrote that “clearly doctored” versions of these leaked papers, which “reduce reported Russian losses and inflate Ukrainian casualty numbers,” have been spread on Russian social media. Details about Ukraine’s expenditure of HIMARS ammunition, which Kyiv has used to devastating effect since they were first provided by the U.S. last June, are also included in the papers.
On Friday, the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the documents as “photoshop & ‘virtual fake leaks.'” It’s not currently known who published the papers online, and their authenticity has not been independently verified by Newsweek.
In a statement previously sent to Newsweek, Sabrina Singh, deputy press secretary at the Pentagon, said: “We are aware of the reports of social media posts and the department is reviewing the matter.”
While the ISW declines to get drawn on the authenticity of the leaked papers, it claims they have sparked “speculative anxiety” amongst milbloggers, underscoring the ongoing “fear of potential Ukrainian counteroffensives.”
“One milblogger stated that the document leak could be part of a larger Ukrainian campaign to mislead Russian forces before a counteroffensive,” the ISW wrote. “Another Russian milblogger noted that there is historical precedent for militaries disseminating false planning information prior to starting surprise offensives.”
